By Kate Harvey
Content Manager | Pou Whakahaere Ihirangi
From time to time, a rumour does the rounds: supermarkets stop putting specials on the things you’ll want for Christmas Day in the week before Christmas.
So, when Christmas 2024 approached and we received an email suggesting we keep an eye on the price of Cadbury Roses chocolates leading up to the big day, we decided it was time to test the rumour.
Starting in the first week of December (week 1), we tracked the prices of 10 supermarket products – things like custard for the trifle, mustard for the ham and boxes of chocolates, like Roses, Lindt balls and scorched almonds.
We chose a New World, Woolworths and Pak’nSave store and watched the prices online. Individual stores can set their own prices, so we can’t say the prices were the same where you live in the country – but the trend was pretty obvious.
Over the 8 weeks, the week that included Christmas Day (week 4) was where we found the most specials across our chosen supermarkets. Ten products and three stores meant there was the potential for 30 specials that week, and we found 23 specials. Week 3 (the week before Christmas) had the second highest number of specials – 22. The number of specials dropped right off after Christmas. We only found 3 in week 6, which was the second week of January.
We asked Bodo Lang, a professor of marketing analytics at Massey University, why supermarkets would charge less for these products at times when they were in such high demand. He said it looked like some of our chosen products were being used as “anchor products” to get shoppers into that store.
“Products that are on sale will motivate consumers to visit a supermarket and, while in the supermarket, consumers are almost guaranteed to buy more products than the one they had seen on special. These products are a catalyst to buying products with a greater profit margin,” Professor Lang said.
“Supermarkets collect enormous amounts of data about consumers shopping behaviour. As a result, supermarkets know exactly which products are in high demand, and they collaborate with manufacturers to create deals that are attractive for consumers. Through this collaboration, manufacturers would’ve lowered their profit margin, and supermarkets may have also lowered their profit. Therefore, these prices are not being sold at a loss but at a reduced profit margin to both parties.”
When we asked Woolworths about the trend, a spokesperson said the supermarket had helped New Zealanders find great value with their Christmas menu by creating a fantastic line-up of offers. Foodstuffs, which owns the other two supermarkets, didn’t have any comment.
We love poring over this stuff and if you do too, here’s a rundown of what we saw for each of the 10 Christmas goodies we tracked over the 8 weeks. Let us know in the comments what you make of it.
Yellow in the tables means the product was on special.
Price tracking results
The custard we kept an eye on was nearly always on special as it got closer to the big day – but making a trifle in January would have cost more as the custard pretty much went back to its non-special price straight after Christmas. There were a couple of specials, but they weren’t as low as they’d been in December.
The cream for the pav never went on special during the 8 weeks but all three of the supermarkets put up its price once the new year ticked over.
The 420g box of Roses chocolates was another one that was almost constantly on special through December. The price jumped right up once Christmas was ticked off, except for a special at Woolworths in week 8, which was still nowhere near as low as the price had been in December.
At Woolworths, the week 2 $10 special was advertised as a “Member Price” for those with Everyday Rewards cards, but it had been cheaper in week 1 and was again in weeks 3 and 4.
The price of the Brie for the cheese platter jumped around a lot more, but it was on special at each of the supermarkets in that week of Christmas.
Chips were on special more times than they weren’t over the 8 weeks, and it was interesting to see how the supermarkets chose to do their specials. The New World store did “2 for” deals – sometimes 2 for $3 and sometimes 2 for $4. Woolworths’ special price was usually $2, but some weeks it called it a “Member Price” and sometimes “25% off”. Pak’nSave always labelled the special “Extra Low”.
Like the Roses chocolates, these Lindt packs of chocolates were heavily discounted through most of December. There were some specials on them again in the last couple of weeks but prices never got as low as in the lead-up to Christmas.
The New World and Pak’nSave stores we were watching had 1.5L bottles of Coca-Cola on special for 3 out of the 4 weeks in December, with the lowest prices in weeks 3 and 4. New World returned the drink to its normal prices for weeks 5, 6 and 7. Pak’nSave hasn’t had it on special since.
Woolworths had this mustard on special for most of December and was the only supermarket to have it on special for the Christmas week. The price jumped around more at the other supermarkets. Pak’nSave hasn’t put it on special since the middle of December.
Scorched almonds – the go-to easy gift – were constantly on special at all three supermarkets in December. The supermarkets set their price and stuck with it.
This bottle of bubbles was on special at all three of the supermarkets in both the week of Christmas and the following week, which included New Year’s Eve and Day.
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